When clarity is scarce, strategy matters most.
If 2025 has taught us anything, it’s that flexibility and connection are our greatest assets. Despite data gaps, market indicators suggest that market stability, while still fragile, may be quietly rebuilding behind the scenes. As competition tightens, success in the coming quarters will belong to those who double down on strategic relationships, reliability, and data-informed decisions. With federal housing data paused due to the government shutdown, Belco remains committed to staying responsive, not reactionary. The next season in the housing market will favor those who are both agile and intentional. Belco’s November outlook digs into what the available numbers do show and how strong partnerships create steady footing.
Builder Confidence: Signs of Life in the Numbers
According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), builder confidence rose five points in October to a national reading of 37. The South climbed six points to 35, while the West improved four points to 30. Future sales expectations reached 54. According to the NAHB, this improvement indicates cautious optimism: “Even as builders continue to grapple with market and macroeconomic uncertainty, sentiment levels posted a solid gain in October as future sales expectations passed the 50-point breakeven mark for the first time since last January.”
Still, the market remains complex. Thirty-eight percent of builders reduced prices in October (down slightly from 39% in September), with average price cuts rising to 6%. Incentive use held steady at 65%, which tells the story of how builders are continuing to creatively adapt rather than retreat.
Affordability and Supply: The New Balancing Act
The latest Zonda New Home Market Update describes builders as “actively supporting the market through creative incentives and flexible pricing.” That adaptability is paying off. Mortgage rates dipped again, hitting 6.17% at the end of October, their lowest level since June. New homes continue to hold a pricing edge over resale properties.
The August median price for new homes was $413,500, more than $14,000 below the existing home median of $427,800. It’s a significant signal that production builders are finding ways to keep new construction competitive even as materials, labor, and land costs present relentless challenges.
Forecast Outlook: Slow Climb, Tight Competition
The NAHB Executive Forecast slightly increased its 2025 single-family starts projection to 947,000, up 0.49% from the previous month. That modest uptick suggests momentum building into 2026, though growth will likely be incremental rather than explosive. In contrast, Fannie Mae’s forecast anticipates a dip in 2026 starts to 916,000 units, citing projected unemployment and inflationary pressure. Both forecasts agree on one thing: the next two years will reward efficiency, partnership, and intelligent positioning.
Finding Opportunity in the Tightest Markets
While overall housing activity is expected to maintain this course through 2027, market share, not market expansion, will define healthy growth. In other words, the builders, dealers, and suppliers who deepen trust and efficiency across their networks will be the ones who come out ahead.
Now more than ever, we encourage our partners to strengthen those same ties:
- Stay informed – Data-driven decisions protect your margins.
- Stay connected – Collaboration reduces inefficiency and risk.
- Stay ready – Nimble operations and strong supply relationships create the advantage when opportunities return.
This is where Belco’s philosophy comes into play. For decades, we’ve learned that dependable partnerships built on clear data, consistent quality, and shared values create long-term resilience. Whether through our On Grade, On Time, Every Time promise or our commitment to product consistency across climates, Belco’s approach mirrors the strategy we see working across the market: strategic collaboration wins over reactionary corner-cutting. Speaking of corner cutting, have you checked out our seamless Belco XT corners? They’re available in 20-foot lengths, so you can avoid corner cutting altogether!
Bottom Line
At Belco, we’re not just watching the numbers. We’re weathering the shifts with you. Even, or maybe especially in the midst of uncertainty, maintain forward motion. The market may be lean, but it’s not lifeless. Partners who remain connected, informed, and strategically positioned will succeed in the months ahead.
